Areas of Concern

Ten rivers of social change all flow into an ocean of disconnection, distrust and social isolation. Bailing out the ocean may be impossible, but we can create islands of sanity with evidence-based interventions at the local level.

Affective Polarization

Americans have always had warmer feelings for their co-partisans than their political opponents, but affective polarization, the tendency to hate the other side—often for irrational or petty reasons—has increased markedly in the past 50 years. according to date from the American National Election Studies survey. People who hate each other can't compromise and work together for the public good. This creates fertile ground for illiberal capture of the cultural commons.

Atomization

People move a lot more than they used to. There's a lot to be said for the economic dynamism and portability of culture modern life offers. The tradeoff to those benefits is increased transience and weak social ties. Tight-knit communities are never coming back; intentionally cultivating strong ties is the only way forward.

Loneliness

In 2024, Biden Administration Surgeon General Vivek Murthy warned of a loneliness epidemic in America. Half the population reports some level of loneliness. while a quarter say they are "frequently" or "always" lonely. This coincides with declines in close friendships. As of 2021, 49% of Americans reported having three or fewer friends, compared to 27% in 1990. Twelve percent have no friends at all.

If Americans have fewer friends, it should come as no surprise that they spend less time with friends overall. Data from the American time use survey show a 50% decline in time spent with friends and a 30% decline in all social time over the past 20 years.

Isolation
Social Opportunity Cost

Every night you spend watching Netflix alone is time you could be spending with others. Scale that opportunity cost up to the societal level and you get vanishing civic organizations. The fix for this is one part changing our relationship with technology and one part addressing the collective action problem of reestablishing common social spaces.

Algorithmic Bubbles

There is no TikTok. There's your TikTok, my TikTok and your crazy uncle's TikTok. Algorithmic feeds make it so that each user might as well be using a different app. If no one can agree on basic facts because of algorithmic derangement, their shared reality required to make decisions at the societal level is absent. This is good for no one, except the rogues' gallery of grifters profiting from our shattered factscape.

Avoidance

Someone has to initiate a relationship. Likewise, someone has to reach out to maintain a relationship. Rising anxiety rates and changing social norms have made people reluctant to reach out to friends and acquaintances for fear of creating awkward situations or bothering the other person. Explicit norms encouraging imitation and reciprocity are needed to counter this trend.

Have you ever walked into a public place and literally everybody was one their phones? While it's debatable whether this is much different from the book- and newspaper-mediated insularity of a generation ago, it can be argued that widespread public device use discourages spontaneity and worsens the device-addiction problem.

Device-Mediated Insularity

Parasocial Relationships

You may think you have deep insight into the personality of your favorite streamer, but you probably don't. Entertainers are usually playing a character when they make public appearances. While they read our your comments or do something on camera for the right price, your relationship with a streamer isn't the same as your relationship with a friend.

AI Sycophancy

According to a 2024 YouGov survey, 25% of Gen Z adults believe that AI partners can replace human romantic relationships. AI chatbots, especially those built to simulate a relationship like Replika, tend toward sycophancy. Too much of that, especially during a person's formative years, could impair one's ability to relate to humans not just in romantic relationships, but in other contexts like friendship and work.

Affective Polarization

Americans have always had warmer feelings for their co-partisans than their political opponents, but affective polarization, the tendency to hate the other side—often for irrational or petty reasons—has increased markedly in the past 50 years. according to date from the American National Election Studies survey. People who hate each other can't compromise and work together for the public good. This creates fertile ground for illiberal capture of the cultural commons.

Atomization

People move a lot more than they used to. There's a lot to be said for the economic dynamism and portability of culture modern life offers. The tradeoff to those benefits is increased transience and weak social ties. Tight-knit communities are never coming back; intentionally cultivating strong ties is the only way forward.

Loneliness

In 2024, Biden Administration Surgeon General Vivek Murthy warned of a loneliness epidemic in America. Half the population reports some level of loneliness. while a quarter say they are "frequently" or "always" lonely. This coincides with declines in close friendships. As of 2021, 49% of Americans reported having three or fewer friends, compared to 27% in 1990. Twelve percent have no friends at all.

Isolation

If Americans have fewer friends, it should come as no surprise that they spend less time with friends overall. Data from the American time use survey show a 50% decline in time spent with friends and a 30% decline in all social time over the past 20 years.

Social Opportunity Cost

Every night you spend watching Netflix alone is time you could be spending with others. Scale that opportunity cost up to the societal level and you get vanishing civic organizations. The fix for this is one part changing our relationship with technology and one part addressing the collective action problem of reestablishing common social spaces.

Algorithmic Bubbles

There is no TikTok. There's your TikTok, my TikTok and your crazy uncle's TikTok. Algorithmic feeds make it so that each user might as well be using a different app. If no one can agree on basic facts because of algorithmic derangement, their shared reality required to make decisions at the societal level is absent. This is good for no one, except the rogues' gallery of grifters profiting from our shattered factscape.

Avoidance

Someone has to initiate a relationship. Likewise, someone has to reach out to maintain a relationship. Rising anxiety rates and changing social norms have made people reluctant to reach out to friends and acquaintances for fear of creating awkward situations or bothering the other person. Explicit norms encouraging imitation and reciprocity are needed to counter this trend.

Device-Mediated Insularity

Have you ever walked into a public place and literally everybody was one their phones? While it's debatable whether this is much different from the book- and newspaper-mediated insularity of a generation ago, it can be argued that widespread public device use discourages spontaneity and worsens the device-addiction problem.

Parasocial Relationships

You may think you have deep insight into the personality of your favorite streamer, but you probably don't. Entertainers are usually playing a character when they make public appearances. While they read our your comments or do something on camera for the right price, your relationship with a streamer isn't the same as your relationship with a friend.

AI Sycophancy

According to a 2024 YouGov survey, 25% of Gen Z adults believe that AI partners can replace human romantic relationships. AI chatbots, especially those built to simulate a relationship like Replika, tend toward sycophancy. Too much of that, especially during a person's formative years, could impair one's ability to relate to humans not just in romantic relationships, but in other contexts like friendship and work.